Future Conflicts & Wars Over Water

Future Conflicts & Wars Over Water
Mohammad Jamil

Last year, Pakistan had suffered a loss exceeding five billion rupees in paddy crop production only as a result of water shortage after India stopped Chenab water to fill its Baglihar Dam during the month of September. India is violating Indus Water Treaty, and the objective seems to be India’s attempt to dry up Pakistan. India’s think-tanks have been working on river diversion plans with a view to creating acute water shortage in Pakistan, which could lead to shortage of wheat and other crops and resultantly inter-provincial conflicts over distribution of water. For the last many years Sindh has been complaining for water shortage and accusing Punjab for using former’s share of water. Now Balochistan leadership blamed Sindh for depriving Balochistan’s share of water. In Punjab, Muttahida Kissan Muhaz recently staged a demonstration protesting the shortage of water for their crops.

And there were speeches in the assembly that Punjab would not give its share of water to Sindh. Pakistan is already facing threats to its internal and external security, and economic crisis due to global financial meltdown and recession. Ominous foreboding is that there could be another vortex of crisis vis-à-vis water conflicts between Pakistan’s provinces. India is keenly watching the situation if the things are moving according to its planning of stoking tensions between provinces of Pakistan. In 2004, when composite dialogue had already started, a book titled Pakistan’ provinces was published by India’s Strategic Foresight Group. Glancing through the preface by Sundeep Waslekar the president of the group explained the reason for discussing the provinces instead of Pakistan one could understand the objective of such a book, which could be the work of RAW. He writes: “In 2004, political discourse is increasingly references to the 1971 situation. It does not mean that provinces will secede in 2004 or 2005, yet it remains to be seen whether they will be together until 2010,” he asks the question, and this speaks volumes about the purpose of the book. In the past, there have been wars between the countries over religions, usurpation of territories and control of resources including oil, but in view of acute shortages of water in Africa, Middle East, Asia and elsewhere, the future wars could be fought over water. The Indus River Basin has been an area of conflict between India and Pakistan for about four decades. Spanning 1,800 miles, the river and its tributaries together make up one of the largest irrigation canals in the world. Dams and canals built in order to provide hydropower and irrigation have dried up stretches of the Indus River. The division of the river basin water has created friction among the countries of South Asia, and among their states and provinces. Accusations of overdrawing of share of water made by each province have resulted in the lack of water supplies to coastal regions of Pakistan. India and Bangladesh have also dispute over Ganges River water and is resorting to water theft there as well.

For the last many years Sindh has been complaining for water shortage and accusing Punjab for using former’s share of water. Now Balochistan leadership blamed Sindh for depriving Balochistan’s share of water. In Punjab, Muttahida Kissan Muhaz recently staged a demonstration protesting the shortage of water for their crops. And there were speeches in the assembly that Punjab would not give its share of water to Sindh. Pakistan is already facing threats to its internal and external security, and economic crisis due to global financial meltdown and recession. Ominous foreboding is that there could be another vortex of crisis vis-à-vis water conflicts between Pakistan’s provinces. India is keenly watching the situation if the things are moving according to its planning of stoking tensions between provinces of Pakistan. Though India is mainly responsible for the water shortages yet our inept leadership is to blame in equal measure for not building a single dam for more than three decades. Farsighted and prudent nations with visionary leadership plan fifty years’ ahead to meet the growing needs of the increasing population. They try to conserve each and every drop of water available to them because they think not of them but of their next generations. Our misfortune is that we are more concerned about our present and less worried about what we are leaving for our next generations. It is criminal negligence of our successive governments of different hues and shades who had failed to build any major dam after Mangla and Tarbela whose storage capacity is shrinking due to silt by each passing day. How disturbing it would be for our farmers to see their lands uncultivated due to water shortage in a situation when 40-42 million acre feet water of Indus River goes waste in the sea annually simply because we have no major dam to save this water.

Secondly, acute water shortage is giving rise to inter-provincial disharmony. To add to Pakistan’s woes, India by constructing one after another controversial dams is causing troubles for Pakistan which is already confronting a severe water crisis. Pakistan is an agricultural country; agriculture accounts for one fourth of GDP. Over 50% labour force is related to agrarian profession. The use of water in agriculture is 93% of total use of water by the country. So water is of paramount importance for Pakistan. The shortage of water means that our future generations may have to face hunger and starvation. Pakistan suffered a loss exceeding five billion rupees in paddy crop production only in the wake of water shortage after India stopped Chenab water to fill its Baglihar dam during last September.

India is indeed violating Indus Water Treaty, and the objective seems to be drying up Pakistan. India’s think-tanks have been working on river diversion plans with a view to creating acute water shortage in Pakistan, which could lead to acute shortage of wheat and other crops and also inter-provincial conflicts over distribution of water. Last year, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) had decided to start work on 4500 MW Diamer-Bhasha Dam from mid-2009, but later it was decided to start work from September 2009. The moot question, however, is whether funding has been lined up to finance the project, because according to a news report the World Bank had refused funding of Bhasha Dam. Perhaps this is the reason the WAPDA is counting on Chinese and Middle East companies, who may be interested in construction of the project on pay-as-you-earn basis. During the course of preparation of feasibility, experts had pointed out some bottlenecks in the construction of this project vis-à-vis the area is situated in seismic zone; up-gradation and relocation of 120 km Karakoram highway, which would entail additional funding.

The plus point is that the Bhasha Dam will eliminate flood hazards to a great extent and will reduce sedimentation in Tarbela reservoir, thereby improving the storage capacity and power output at Tarbela. Pakistan should therefore expedite the construction of Bhasha Dam along with other dams, whic is vital not only for our survival but also for enhancing the agricultural out-put, for increasing overall industrial productivity, reducing the cost of production as a result of cheap electricity and generating new job opportunities.
Email: mjamil1938@yahoo.com & mjamil1938@hotmail.com