THE TERROR TRAIL

Spearhead Analysis

THE TERROR TRAIL

Last June a bombing attack destroyed the Pearl Continental Hotel—located in a high security zone and Peshawar’s only five star hotel. Before that the ISI ‘s provincial headquarters in Lahore had been bombed and in between there was the suicide bombing of the Police Rescue 15 building in Islamabad and a bloody attack on a mosque in Dir. On the streets of Karachi political infighting between two factions of a political party led to over 40 killings in drive-by shooting incidents. There were media reports of targeted killings in Baluchistan. A political confrontation between the major parties seems to be raising its head.

The Taliban had vowed retaliation in Pakistan’s urban areas for the military operation against them. There is very little doubt that most of these attacks are part of this promised retaliation with the objective of opening up a violent situation inside Pakistan that would take the pressure off the Taliban in the western border areas as well as terrorize the public to develop a lobby for an end to the military operations. The violence in Karachi is political in-fighting for turf but it is badly timed and unless quickly controlled ethnic and sectarian differences could be added to the bubbling cauldron to exploit the situation. In Baluchistan there are random acts of subversion and an effort to create an ethnic confrontation through orchestrated violence. This is part of an externally sponsored destabilization operation but here too the potential for exploitation exists if the situation is not politically resolved and the external support turned off. India views the Mumbai terror attack through linkages with Southern Punjab based organizations and demands action against them by Pakistan even in the absence of concrete proof and it is obvious that India is not looking at the total picture within Pakistan or if it is then it is bent upon exploiting that situation to its advantage in complete disregard of longer term consequences.

The military operation in Malakand and Swat rolls on. No one expected it to be short and easy. Perhaps the magnitude of the human displacement and its impact over a long period was not correctly anticipated. The earlier propaganda against the military that centred on perceptions of ‘conflicted motivation’ and ‘rogue elements’ within the ISI has petered out in the wake of the determined action by all elements of the military---in fact now there are calls for the military to do more by extending the operation into FATA and even mainstreaming FATA into Pakistan’s settled areas. There is enormous public support for the military and a deep appreciation and respect for its competence, motivation and sacrifices. The overwhelming perception is that the allegations against the military and ISI were meant to weaken Pakistan’s capacity so as to speed up its destabilization and those within Pakistan who subscribed to such views have now crawled back into the woodwork. The effort to create a civil-military divide in the mistaken belief that this would strengthen the political institution has collapsed---no one doubts the military’s resolve to stay out of politics and its support for democracy. The expectations from the government for governance, economic recovery and political stability have increased manifold as societal pressures increase because of inflation, power shortages and economic activity shut-down. Credibility will depend on performance and perceptions.

There is now an effort from well known quarters to revive fears of an extremist takeover of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The discussions do not debate the security, command, control and legislative measures that are in place because these cannot be faulted. The ‘concern’ is for the overall security situation within Pakistan and it is in that context that all sorts of scenarios are being dreamt up. By now the ’60 mile distance’ between the Taliban and Islamabad has been dismissed as a myth that forgot about terrain, ethnicity, urban culture and the 700000 strong military that stands as a cohesive guarantee of security. There are now scenarios of an ‘implosion’ from within and the need for contingency plans to deal with ‘possible’ situations and such thoughts are encouraged by those who seek to ingratiate themselves with the US and project themselves as bastions of democracy and security. Overstepping on this track could sow distrust and negate the efforts to build up relations---particularly the US-Pakistan relationship that is critically important for both. It is for the US to determine what contingencies it wants to prepare for and how it wants the US-Pakistan relationship to proceed. The one certainty is that this is the time to build up Pakistan’s COIN capacity on a priority basis and that this is not the time to hold back needed capacity building support.

The terror attacks within Pakistan have not weakened resolve. If anything these have led to a hardening of opinion and determination to defeat the forces that threaten Pakistan and have scant regard for human life. There is no faltering in the concerted military operation underway that has put the Taliban on the run and forced them to resort to counter-productive actions. Pakistan must continue to forge bilateral relations with neighbours and beyond---the US-Pakistan relationship has enormous importance. This is not the time for any sort of political confrontation or discord---this is the time for political stability and governance.