Last year, Pakistan had suffered a loss exceeding five billion rupees in paddy crop production only as a result of water shortage after India stopped Chenab water to fill its Baglihar Dam during the month of September. India is violating Indus Water Treaty, and the objective seems to be India’s attempt to dry up Pakistan. India’s think-tanks have been working on river diversion plans with a view to creating acute water shortage in Pakistan, which could lead to shortage of wheat and other crops and resultantly inter-provincial conflicts over distribution of water. For the last many years Sindh has been complaining for water shortage and accusing Punjab for using former’s share of water. Now Balochistan leadership blamed Sindh for depriving Balochistan’s share of water. In Punjab, Muttahida Kissan Muhaz recently staged a demonstration protesting the shortage of water for their crops.
And there were speeches in the assembly that Punjab would not give its share of water to Sindh. Pakistan is already facing threats to its internal and external security, and economic crisis due to global financial meltdown and recession. Ominous foreboding is that there could be another vortex of crisis vis-à-vis water conflicts between Pakistan’s provinces. India is keenly watching the situation if the things are moving according to its planning of stoking tensions between provinces of Pakistan. In 2004, when composite dialogue had already started, a book titled Pakistan’ provinces was published by India’s Strategic Foresight Group. Glancing through the preface by Sundeep Waslekar the president of the group explained the reason for discussing the provinces instead of Pakistan one could understand the objective of such a book, which could be the work of RAW. He writes: “In 2004, political discourse is increasingly references to the 1971 situation. It does not mean that provinces will secede in 2004 or 2005, yet it remains to be seen whether they will be together until 2010,” he asks the question, and this speaks volumes about the purpose of the book. In the past, there have been wars between the countries over religions, usurpation of territories and control of resources including oil, but in view of acute shortages of water in Africa, Middle East, Asia and elsewhere, the future wars could be fought over water. The Indus River Basin has been an area of conflict between India and Pakistan for about four decades. Spanning 1,800 miles, the river and its tributaries together make up one of the largest irrigation canals in the world. Dams and canals built in order to provide hydropower and irrigation have dried up stretches of the Indus River. The division of the river basin water has created friction among the countries of South Asia, and among their states and provinces. Accusations of overdrawing of share of water made by each province have resulted in the lack of water supplies to coastal regions of Pakistan. India and Bangladesh have also dispute over Ganges River water and is resorting to water theft there as well.
For the last many years Sindh has been complaining for water shortage and accusing Punjab for using former’s share of water. Now Balochistan leadership blamed Sindh for depriving Balochistan’s share of water. In Punjab, Muttahida Kissan Muhaz recently staged a demonstration protesting the shortage of water for their crops. And there were speeches in the assembly that Punjab would not give its share of water to Sindh. Pakistan is already facing threats to its internal and external security, and economic crisis due to global financial meltdown and recession. Ominous foreboding is that there could be another vortex of crisis vis-à-vis water conflicts between Pakistan’s provinces. India is keenly watching the situation if the things are moving according to its planning of stoking tensions between provinces of Pakistan. Though India is mainly responsible for the water shortages yet our inept leadership is to blame in equal measure for not building a single dam for more than three decades. Farsighted and prudent nations with visionary leadership plan fifty years’ ahead to meet the growing needs of the increasing population. They try to conserve each and every drop of water available to them because they think not of them but of their next generations. Our misfortune is that we are more concerned about our present and less worried about what we are leaving for our next generations. It is criminal negligence of our successive governments of different hues and shades who had failed to build any major dam after Mangla and Tarbela whose storage capacity is shrinking due to silt by each passing day. How disturbing it would be for our farmers to see their lands uncultivated due to water shortage in a situation when 40-42 million acre feet water of Indus River goes waste in the sea annually simply because we have no major dam to save this water.
Secondly, acute water shortage is giving rise to inter-provincial disharmony. To add to Pakistan’s woes, India by constructing one after another controversial dams is causing troubles for Pakistan which is already confronting a severe water crisis. Pakistan is an agricultural country; agriculture accounts for one fourth of GDP. Over 50% labour force is related to agrarian profession. The use of water in agriculture is 93% of total use of water by the country. So water is of paramount importance for Pakistan. The shortage of water means that our future generations may have to face hunger and starvation. Pakistan suffered a loss exceeding five billion rupees in paddy crop production only in the wake of water shortage after India stopped Chenab water to fill its Baglihar dam during last September.
India is indeed violating Indus Water Treaty, and the objective seems to be drying up Pakistan. India’s think-tanks have been working on river diversion plans with a view to creating acute water shortage in Pakistan, which could lead to acute shortage of wheat and other crops and also inter-provincial conflicts over distribution of water. Last year, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) had decided to start work on 4500 MW Diamer-Bhasha Dam from mid-2009, but later it was decided to start work from September 2009. The moot question, however, is whether funding has been lined up to finance the project, because according to a news report the World Bank had refused funding of Bhasha Dam. Perhaps this is the reason the WAPDA is counting on Chinese and Middle East companies, who may be interested in construction of the project on pay-as-you-earn basis. During the course of preparation of feasibility, experts had pointed out some bottlenecks in the construction of this project vis-à-vis the area is situated in seismic zone; up-gradation and relocation of 120 km Karakoram highway, which would entail additional funding.
The plus point is that the Bhasha Dam will eliminate flood hazards to a great extent and will reduce sedimentation in Tarbela reservoir, thereby improving the storage capacity and power output at Tarbela. Pakistan should therefore expedite the construction of Bhasha Dam along with other dams, whic is vital not only for our survival but also for enhancing the agricultural out-put, for increasing overall industrial productivity, reducing the cost of production as a result of cheap electricity and generating new job opportunities.
Mohammad Jamil
Email: mjamil1938@yahoo.com & mjamil1938@hotmail.com
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
India Defence Budget and Realities
India has hiked its 2009-10 defence budget by 34 percent, allocating Rs1.42 trillion out of which a huge sum of Rs 548.24 billion has been marked as capital outlay to procure state-of-the-art weapons. The last time the defence budget was increased by over 30 percent was in 1987-88 when allocation was increased by 43.4 percent to Rs 12,512 crores. The rise in the defence budget is a clear depiction of the Indian mindset. It is yearning to be a regional power and is being propped up by the West, to act as a bulwark to China. What the Occident is overlooking is explained by Plato in his renowned work Republic, in which he describes the perfect society, with a guardian class protecting the city, giving rise to the concern, who will "guard the guards?" Armed to the teeth India will become another Frankenstein, in the likes of Sadddam Hussain, bully of the block and a menace for the world. Oblivious of the outcome, the western Military Industrial Complex is happy to sell its overpriced weapons of mass destruction to a gullible Indian market since the Indian indigenous arms industry is beset with expensive failures.
The Law of Scarcity dictates that a trade off be made between two classes of goods - coined by Adolf Hitler - guns (military weapons) and butter (civilian goods). The choice has to be made by society, depending on the threat to its sovereignty, how much of the scarce resources are to be allocated for guns and how much for butter. Unfortunately, because of acute Indian propaganda regarding the Mumbai attacks and aspersions cast on Pakistan, well-known Indian defence analysts like Commodore (retd) Bhaskar, the director of the Indian National Maritime Foundation, or Bharat Verma in his article Less money for fire power and many others insist that the current hike would not be enough for force modernisation. The Indian masses and think tanks should take cognisance of the threat within, which is gnawing away at the roots of India. The Naxalite insurgency has become the biggest threat to the Indian union, surpassing unrest in IHK and revolt-hit northeastern states. Out of 630 districts the Indian government has declared 220 districts as the Maoist affected areas. As per its government announced figures, more than 181 security personnel have been killed during the past five months. There is no official mention of collateral damage, civilian casualties and losses suffered by Maoist guerrillas. In fact India is fighting a bloody war against Naxalite insurgents, who call themselves the liberators of repressive rule of Indian government and frequently challenge the writ of the government. They are the spokesmen of poor and landless farmers and neglected tribal people of West Bengal.
They represent a movement against oppression and exploitation and have the will and the capacity to battle the Indian Security Forces to achieve freedom from Indian draconian rule. They enjoy considerable influence in areas like Lal Garh in Medinapore district of West Bengal; Karnataka (Orissa). After numerous disruptive attempts during the Indian elections in April-May 2009 (killing and maiming scores of policemen and civilians); on June 16, 2009, three to four hundred Maoist guerrillas entered Lal Garh and captured the town including the police station, removing all signs and symbols of political and administrative authority, thereby challenging the writ of the government. They blew up a railway building, damaged three mobile phone towers in Orissa (Koraput district) and cut off 125 villages from rest of the state. Trouble in Karnataka also marked Maoist upheaval and rebellious activities. The state government launched a full-scale military operation against Maoist guerrillas. Central and state police employed two companies of Border Security Force (BSF), one company of Central Police Reserve Force (CRPF), a platoon of Kolkatta Police Rapid Action Battalion, a company from West Bengal Armed Police and a platoon of Indian Reserve Battalion (IRB). Reportedly the town has been recaptured using over 1000 personnel; however, the rebels still control the major part of the district. Over the weekend, 24 policemen were ambushed and killed by Maoists in Chattisgarh in eastern India. The Maoist insurgency in India is picking up strength and is likely to reach its logical conclusion but Indian government appears to be in a denial mode towards it.
PM Manmohan Singh is more concerned regarding Pakistan's "lack of progress" in investigating those behind the Mumbai attacks, which he expressed in a meeting with President Obama last Friday. He also discussed militancy in Pakistan and regional security in a series of bilateral meetings and talks with world leaders on the sidelines of the G8 summit in Italy but remains oblivious to the trouble brewing at home. What we in Pakistan have to say may be construed as "conspiracy theory" but Dr Manmohan Singh should at least pay heed to the danger to India's sovereignty outlined by his countrymen like Maloy Krishna Dhar in his July 1, 2009 Op-Ed Indian fault lines: Perceptions and reality. The informed analyst clearly spells out the threats in his opening paragraph by stating: "Philosophical assertion and wishful thinking and perception of oneness (united India) have not stood the test of time, since 1947." Enumerating the various separatist movements threatening to tear India apart, the scholar concludes asking: "So, in the final reality count India appears to be compartmentalized seriously as we were well before independence. How we discover the soul of India from the dustbin of fragmented India? Are we in the process of having 'Many Indias' and permanently losing 'One India' for which the Indians fought against the British? Are we reverting back to an India that was divided into different polities with fragile geographic and cultural bonds in 9th and 10th century?"
That is what India should heed rather than hike its defence budget, acquiring weapons of mass destruction and pretend to be the regional watchdog when its own house is burning and can set the whole region aflame.
Sultan M Hali
Email: sm_hali@yahoo.com
The Law of Scarcity dictates that a trade off be made between two classes of goods - coined by Adolf Hitler - guns (military weapons) and butter (civilian goods). The choice has to be made by society, depending on the threat to its sovereignty, how much of the scarce resources are to be allocated for guns and how much for butter. Unfortunately, because of acute Indian propaganda regarding the Mumbai attacks and aspersions cast on Pakistan, well-known Indian defence analysts like Commodore (retd) Bhaskar, the director of the Indian National Maritime Foundation, or Bharat Verma in his article Less money for fire power and many others insist that the current hike would not be enough for force modernisation. The Indian masses and think tanks should take cognisance of the threat within, which is gnawing away at the roots of India. The Naxalite insurgency has become the biggest threat to the Indian union, surpassing unrest in IHK and revolt-hit northeastern states. Out of 630 districts the Indian government has declared 220 districts as the Maoist affected areas. As per its government announced figures, more than 181 security personnel have been killed during the past five months. There is no official mention of collateral damage, civilian casualties and losses suffered by Maoist guerrillas. In fact India is fighting a bloody war against Naxalite insurgents, who call themselves the liberators of repressive rule of Indian government and frequently challenge the writ of the government. They are the spokesmen of poor and landless farmers and neglected tribal people of West Bengal.
They represent a movement against oppression and exploitation and have the will and the capacity to battle the Indian Security Forces to achieve freedom from Indian draconian rule. They enjoy considerable influence in areas like Lal Garh in Medinapore district of West Bengal; Karnataka (Orissa). After numerous disruptive attempts during the Indian elections in April-May 2009 (killing and maiming scores of policemen and civilians); on June 16, 2009, three to four hundred Maoist guerrillas entered Lal Garh and captured the town including the police station, removing all signs and symbols of political and administrative authority, thereby challenging the writ of the government. They blew up a railway building, damaged three mobile phone towers in Orissa (Koraput district) and cut off 125 villages from rest of the state. Trouble in Karnataka also marked Maoist upheaval and rebellious activities. The state government launched a full-scale military operation against Maoist guerrillas. Central and state police employed two companies of Border Security Force (BSF), one company of Central Police Reserve Force (CRPF), a platoon of Kolkatta Police Rapid Action Battalion, a company from West Bengal Armed Police and a platoon of Indian Reserve Battalion (IRB). Reportedly the town has been recaptured using over 1000 personnel; however, the rebels still control the major part of the district. Over the weekend, 24 policemen were ambushed and killed by Maoists in Chattisgarh in eastern India. The Maoist insurgency in India is picking up strength and is likely to reach its logical conclusion but Indian government appears to be in a denial mode towards it.
PM Manmohan Singh is more concerned regarding Pakistan's "lack of progress" in investigating those behind the Mumbai attacks, which he expressed in a meeting with President Obama last Friday. He also discussed militancy in Pakistan and regional security in a series of bilateral meetings and talks with world leaders on the sidelines of the G8 summit in Italy but remains oblivious to the trouble brewing at home. What we in Pakistan have to say may be construed as "conspiracy theory" but Dr Manmohan Singh should at least pay heed to the danger to India's sovereignty outlined by his countrymen like Maloy Krishna Dhar in his July 1, 2009 Op-Ed Indian fault lines: Perceptions and reality. The informed analyst clearly spells out the threats in his opening paragraph by stating: "Philosophical assertion and wishful thinking and perception of oneness (united India) have not stood the test of time, since 1947." Enumerating the various separatist movements threatening to tear India apart, the scholar concludes asking: "So, in the final reality count India appears to be compartmentalized seriously as we were well before independence. How we discover the soul of India from the dustbin of fragmented India? Are we in the process of having 'Many Indias' and permanently losing 'One India' for which the Indians fought against the British? Are we reverting back to an India that was divided into different polities with fragile geographic and cultural bonds in 9th and 10th century?"
That is what India should heed rather than hike its defence budget, acquiring weapons of mass destruction and pretend to be the regional watchdog when its own house is burning and can set the whole region aflame.
Sultan M Hali
Email: sm_hali@yahoo.com
Aqua Bomb Against Pakistan
In a recent well-researched article, the writer brought out that Pakistan has taken up the issue of compensation for 200,000 cusecs of stolen water with India. This "theft" recently took place in June 2009. In simple terms, the loss to Pakistan has been caused by India by building the Baghliar Dam on the Chenab River in Indian held Kashmir (IHK). This, indeed, is a very serious issue and as such, wisdom demands that it may not be viewed as an isolated incident.
In fact, the construction of Baghliar Dam is a part of India's water strategy and it is exclusively designed to harm Pakistan on non-conventional fronts. Precisely speaking, India has adopted this strategy for Chankya's well-known dictum of deception or unethical warfare in sharp contrast to ethical warfare to achieve national objectives.
Interestingly, practical demonstration of this 'design' was given by India's ex-PM Vajpayee's behaviour. The story gives that while inaugurating Sudhu Darshan festival in Laddakh, he had put his hands in the Sindhu River and uttered such words which precisely meant that he could stop flow of water downhill to Pakistan. In view of this incident, the writer poses a question as to what could be India's ultimate objective? And then he himself answers that one could see into dark recesses of the Indian mind through writings of a few Indian military strategists. These writings have appeared in India's United Services Institution magazine.
Highlights of those writings are that these spearhead India's campaign to justify water warfare with Pakistan. Brigadier Joshi, in his book: War in the 21st Century, has even tried to justify scrapping of Indus Basin Water Treaty. He made this mischievous suggestion by twisting Laws of International Water Counsel.
To support the stand of military leaders, some Indian historians have also started arguing that India should put all moral values at bay and engage itself in all-out warfare with Pakistan. These scholars recommend that extreme damage should be caused to Pakistan by building of additional dams in IHK. The damage caused by closing flow of river Chenab to Pakistan could be gauged and further action may be taken in the light of this present venture.
India's nefarious designs are a serious threat to Pakistan. Already, the blockade on the Chenab River has reduced flow of water to a trickle. Seen in this backdrop, Pakistan is already in throes of a severe water shortage. India's intransigence in building more dams will make the shortage of water and power of Pakistan.. India's unilateral Chenab closure decision has already affected Pakistan's Kharif Crop, particularly cotton and sugarcane.
It is high time that Pakistan understands the gravity of the situation. India's intentions are loud and clear. It is determined to use river waters as an Aqua Bomb against Pakistan. India's tactics include releasing floodwater or choking water without previous notice to Pakistan. To use water as an Aqua Bomb, India has built multiple barrages and dams, even on rivers, that were awarded to Pakistan under Indus Water Treaty (IWT).
In sum, as reflected by writings of India's strategists and military minds, India's current attitude is well planned to harm Pakistan. For Pakistan, it is high time to wake up, as time and tide wait for no one.
Ghulam Sarwar
Email: colghulamsarwar@hotmail.com
In fact, the construction of Baghliar Dam is a part of India's water strategy and it is exclusively designed to harm Pakistan on non-conventional fronts. Precisely speaking, India has adopted this strategy for Chankya's well-known dictum of deception or unethical warfare in sharp contrast to ethical warfare to achieve national objectives.
Interestingly, practical demonstration of this 'design' was given by India's ex-PM Vajpayee's behaviour. The story gives that while inaugurating Sudhu Darshan festival in Laddakh, he had put his hands in the Sindhu River and uttered such words which precisely meant that he could stop flow of water downhill to Pakistan. In view of this incident, the writer poses a question as to what could be India's ultimate objective? And then he himself answers that one could see into dark recesses of the Indian mind through writings of a few Indian military strategists. These writings have appeared in India's United Services Institution magazine.
Highlights of those writings are that these spearhead India's campaign to justify water warfare with Pakistan. Brigadier Joshi, in his book: War in the 21st Century, has even tried to justify scrapping of Indus Basin Water Treaty. He made this mischievous suggestion by twisting Laws of International Water Counsel.
To support the stand of military leaders, some Indian historians have also started arguing that India should put all moral values at bay and engage itself in all-out warfare with Pakistan. These scholars recommend that extreme damage should be caused to Pakistan by building of additional dams in IHK. The damage caused by closing flow of river Chenab to Pakistan could be gauged and further action may be taken in the light of this present venture.
India's nefarious designs are a serious threat to Pakistan. Already, the blockade on the Chenab River has reduced flow of water to a trickle. Seen in this backdrop, Pakistan is already in throes of a severe water shortage. India's intransigence in building more dams will make the shortage of water and power of Pakistan.. India's unilateral Chenab closure decision has already affected Pakistan's Kharif Crop, particularly cotton and sugarcane.
It is high time that Pakistan understands the gravity of the situation. India's intentions are loud and clear. It is determined to use river waters as an Aqua Bomb against Pakistan. India's tactics include releasing floodwater or choking water without previous notice to Pakistan. To use water as an Aqua Bomb, India has built multiple barrages and dams, even on rivers, that were awarded to Pakistan under Indus Water Treaty (IWT).
In sum, as reflected by writings of India's strategists and military minds, India's current attitude is well planned to harm Pakistan. For Pakistan, it is high time to wake up, as time and tide wait for no one.
Ghulam Sarwar
Email: colghulamsarwar@hotmail.com
Sunday, October 18, 2009
DIVERGENCES
Spearhead Analysis—23.07.09
Yesterdays (22 July, 2009) New York Times has a story that hints at divergences between the US and Pakistan in the war on terror in Afghanistan. Unnamed Pakistani intelligence officials are reported as having said that Pakistan had concerns that the US operational surge in Afghanistan could raise the pressures on Pakistan—particularly in the Baluchistan area where the troop strength was nowhere near what it was in FATA. They are also quoted as saying that perceptions differed over the threat from India and therefore Pakistan could not move troops from the east to the west. Pakistan has often indicated that the subversive activity in Baluchistan is from Afghanistan and that India is involved because it wants to create leverage in Kashmir. Lately Indians have been saying that activity in Kashmir is picking up again.
The US thinks that a body called the ‘Quetta Shura’ runs the Taliban operations in Afghanistan from Baluchistan and this ‘shura’ is tolerated by Pakistan as it poses no threat to Pakistan unlike the local Taliban in FATA and Swat. The US Secretary of State said in India that the ‘perpetrators of 9/11 were in Pakistan’. This was countered officially in Pakistan by a Foreign Office spokesman who said that they were in Afghanistan. The perception in Pakistan is that the US operations in Southern Afghanistan are not achieving success and now that sanctuaries in FATA cannot be blamed for the lack of success because of Pakistan military operations the US is talking of the ‘shura’ in Baluchistan. Over the last two weeks casualties have been high in Afghanistan and four aircraft have been lost raising the specter of ground to air weapons in Taliban hands. If true this could increase the scale of operations significantly.
Implicit in these perceptions is the idea that Pakistan is carrying out counter insurgency operations in FATA and Swat areas because the local or ‘Pakistani’ Taliban had challenged the writ of the state but it is not doing anything against the Taliban fighting US/NATO in Afghanistan and in fact tolerates their presence. There is even the unspoken thought that Pakistani intelligence is in contact with the Taliban commanders operating in Afghanistan---this ‘contact’ is never fully explained because Pakistani intelligence is the best bet for influencing the Taliban to negotiate if that ever became an option. Pakistan understands that the insurgency in its FATA area springs from Southern Afghanistan and is supported by the Taliban/Al Qaeda there---it is therefore unlikely that Pakistan would be so moronic as to fight the Afghan supported insurgents in one sector and support people behind them in another sector. It does make sense however, that Pakistan would keep all options open to bring the insurgency to an end---something that can happen only with an end to the violence in Afghanistan.
There is a fringe in Pakistan that believes that the entire situation in FATA, Swat and Baluchistan is being manipulated by the US to involve Pakistan’s military fully on the entire border with Afghanistan because that suits US, Indian and Afghan government interests. Yet another thought is the fear of violence marring the Presidential elections in Afghanistan and that this is behind the pressure on Pakistan to ‘do more’. A failed election would signal overall failure in Afghanistan.
It is vitally important that the US and Pakistan have a bilateral discussion to remove the doubts, concerns and fears on both sides. The US strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan was discussed before it began to be implemented. Pakistan has been and continues to be cooperative. Pakistan is making enormous sacrifices while fighting the insurgency in FATA. If these efforts remain unappreciated and in fact if Pakistan begins to be doubted then a reappraisal of exactly how much Pakistan should be doing would be warranted. There should never be a feeling in Pakistan that Washington and Delhi putting their heads together translates into targeting Pakistan. The need of the hour is not Af-Pak’, whatever that means, but US- Pakistan and US- Afghanistan and US-India---three separate tracks with convergence only where it is possible and required. There is enormous appreciation for US support of Pakistan---this opportunity should not be lost. Impatience with Pakistan should not drive US policy---it should lead to serious thinking on how Pakistan can be supported to act urgently in its own interest and how the capability to do so can be built up.
www.spearheadresearch.org
Yesterdays (22 July, 2009) New York Times has a story that hints at divergences between the US and Pakistan in the war on terror in Afghanistan. Unnamed Pakistani intelligence officials are reported as having said that Pakistan had concerns that the US operational surge in Afghanistan could raise the pressures on Pakistan—particularly in the Baluchistan area where the troop strength was nowhere near what it was in FATA. They are also quoted as saying that perceptions differed over the threat from India and therefore Pakistan could not move troops from the east to the west. Pakistan has often indicated that the subversive activity in Baluchistan is from Afghanistan and that India is involved because it wants to create leverage in Kashmir. Lately Indians have been saying that activity in Kashmir is picking up again.
The US thinks that a body called the ‘Quetta Shura’ runs the Taliban operations in Afghanistan from Baluchistan and this ‘shura’ is tolerated by Pakistan as it poses no threat to Pakistan unlike the local Taliban in FATA and Swat. The US Secretary of State said in India that the ‘perpetrators of 9/11 were in Pakistan’. This was countered officially in Pakistan by a Foreign Office spokesman who said that they were in Afghanistan. The perception in Pakistan is that the US operations in Southern Afghanistan are not achieving success and now that sanctuaries in FATA cannot be blamed for the lack of success because of Pakistan military operations the US is talking of the ‘shura’ in Baluchistan. Over the last two weeks casualties have been high in Afghanistan and four aircraft have been lost raising the specter of ground to air weapons in Taliban hands. If true this could increase the scale of operations significantly.
Implicit in these perceptions is the idea that Pakistan is carrying out counter insurgency operations in FATA and Swat areas because the local or ‘Pakistani’ Taliban had challenged the writ of the state but it is not doing anything against the Taliban fighting US/NATO in Afghanistan and in fact tolerates their presence. There is even the unspoken thought that Pakistani intelligence is in contact with the Taliban commanders operating in Afghanistan---this ‘contact’ is never fully explained because Pakistani intelligence is the best bet for influencing the Taliban to negotiate if that ever became an option. Pakistan understands that the insurgency in its FATA area springs from Southern Afghanistan and is supported by the Taliban/Al Qaeda there---it is therefore unlikely that Pakistan would be so moronic as to fight the Afghan supported insurgents in one sector and support people behind them in another sector. It does make sense however, that Pakistan would keep all options open to bring the insurgency to an end---something that can happen only with an end to the violence in Afghanistan.
There is a fringe in Pakistan that believes that the entire situation in FATA, Swat and Baluchistan is being manipulated by the US to involve Pakistan’s military fully on the entire border with Afghanistan because that suits US, Indian and Afghan government interests. Yet another thought is the fear of violence marring the Presidential elections in Afghanistan and that this is behind the pressure on Pakistan to ‘do more’. A failed election would signal overall failure in Afghanistan.
It is vitally important that the US and Pakistan have a bilateral discussion to remove the doubts, concerns and fears on both sides. The US strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan was discussed before it began to be implemented. Pakistan has been and continues to be cooperative. Pakistan is making enormous sacrifices while fighting the insurgency in FATA. If these efforts remain unappreciated and in fact if Pakistan begins to be doubted then a reappraisal of exactly how much Pakistan should be doing would be warranted. There should never be a feeling in Pakistan that Washington and Delhi putting their heads together translates into targeting Pakistan. The need of the hour is not Af-Pak’, whatever that means, but US- Pakistan and US- Afghanistan and US-India---three separate tracks with convergence only where it is possible and required. There is enormous appreciation for US support of Pakistan---this opportunity should not be lost. Impatience with Pakistan should not drive US policy---it should lead to serious thinking on how Pakistan can be supported to act urgently in its own interest and how the capability to do so can be built up.
www.spearheadresearch.org
Why Indians are Hated World Over
Dr. M Anwar
It was shockingly upsetting to see the young Indians getting thrashed in the hands of Australian gangs in Sydney, the other day. The ordeal of these innocent youngsters was well covered by CNN as one of them was stabbed in the abdomen while another student was beaten to near death and yet a third one was severely punched on the face and the forehead. Racial discrimination against Indians studying or working in foreign countries is a usual phenomenon and speaks volumes about the prejudices of the west against Indian nationals. One often hears foreigners resorting to name calling and ethnic howling to demean and humiliate Indians as they move around in the public places. Psychological injuries caused by such treatment are very painful and damaging for the Indian nationals staying abroad. No doubt Indians suffered silent and latent mental abrasions as they remained exposed to nightmarish experiences abroad, however, Indians remained comfortable so long as the abuse remained only verbal and they were not attacked physically. Unfortunately the Australian abhorrence for Indians grew disgustingly to an unmanageable level and they were physically assaulted at every public place in Sydney. In this context Indian protests were timely and justified. One feels pity on their painful torment and embarrassing ignominy while staying abroad.
Indians are hated, harassed and attacked not only in Australia and Europe but also in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, China, South Africa, America and South American region. One wonders as to why Indians are despised and loathed the world over? Perhaps Indian caste system imbibed in their way of life, cultural norms and social mores has an answer. The Indian socialization process is based on prejudices and social discrimination. When the process gets internalized the Indians are forced to avert the notion of mutual co-existence and reciprocity based on human dignity, respect and honor. They live together only to enhance negative feelings, develop bigotry and promote intolerance and racism. Their approach towards non-Hindus and non-Indians is cynically insular and mutually exclusive. Their hatred towards fellow human being residing in their contiguous neighborhood is classically manifested. Overwhelmed by the power motives, Indians want to dominate others and make others as subservient to their will. Hence, while in foreign land, Indians could not hide their real motives and their inner desires got window of expression. Consequently their prejudicial behavior and negative display of emotions, forced the other communities to hate them back.
As Indians resorted to move out to find better living abroad, their priorities were absolutely correct and they focused on acquiring knowledge and mastering skills. They competed well in all fields and created their own businesses abroad but they could not depart from their mischievous mind set to conspire against the others. Moreover when the going was easy and even Indians took full credit but when the going became rough and bumpy they prepared a case for all South Asians. Even in Australia when Indian students were attacked they made hue and cry that Australians are discriminating against the South Asians thereby pitching other regional countries into their battle. Indian hatred towards Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal is well known. These South Asian countries know the true face of India and now the world is getting familiar with the genuine Indians. Will Indians resort to some sort of introspection to mend their ways and start learning how to earn respect through mutual co-existence and cooperation? The earlier they learn the better for themselves.
It was shockingly upsetting to see the young Indians getting thrashed in the hands of Australian gangs in Sydney, the other day. The ordeal of these innocent youngsters was well covered by CNN as one of them was stabbed in the abdomen while another student was beaten to near death and yet a third one was severely punched on the face and the forehead. Racial discrimination against Indians studying or working in foreign countries is a usual phenomenon and speaks volumes about the prejudices of the west against Indian nationals. One often hears foreigners resorting to name calling and ethnic howling to demean and humiliate Indians as they move around in the public places. Psychological injuries caused by such treatment are very painful and damaging for the Indian nationals staying abroad. No doubt Indians suffered silent and latent mental abrasions as they remained exposed to nightmarish experiences abroad, however, Indians remained comfortable so long as the abuse remained only verbal and they were not attacked physically. Unfortunately the Australian abhorrence for Indians grew disgustingly to an unmanageable level and they were physically assaulted at every public place in Sydney. In this context Indian protests were timely and justified. One feels pity on their painful torment and embarrassing ignominy while staying abroad.
Indians are hated, harassed and attacked not only in Australia and Europe but also in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, China, South Africa, America and South American region. One wonders as to why Indians are despised and loathed the world over? Perhaps Indian caste system imbibed in their way of life, cultural norms and social mores has an answer. The Indian socialization process is based on prejudices and social discrimination. When the process gets internalized the Indians are forced to avert the notion of mutual co-existence and reciprocity based on human dignity, respect and honor. They live together only to enhance negative feelings, develop bigotry and promote intolerance and racism. Their approach towards non-Hindus and non-Indians is cynically insular and mutually exclusive. Their hatred towards fellow human being residing in their contiguous neighborhood is classically manifested. Overwhelmed by the power motives, Indians want to dominate others and make others as subservient to their will. Hence, while in foreign land, Indians could not hide their real motives and their inner desires got window of expression. Consequently their prejudicial behavior and negative display of emotions, forced the other communities to hate them back.
As Indians resorted to move out to find better living abroad, their priorities were absolutely correct and they focused on acquiring knowledge and mastering skills. They competed well in all fields and created their own businesses abroad but they could not depart from their mischievous mind set to conspire against the others. Moreover when the going was easy and even Indians took full credit but when the going became rough and bumpy they prepared a case for all South Asians. Even in Australia when Indian students were attacked they made hue and cry that Australians are discriminating against the South Asians thereby pitching other regional countries into their battle. Indian hatred towards Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal is well known. These South Asian countries know the true face of India and now the world is getting familiar with the genuine Indians. Will Indians resort to some sort of introspection to mend their ways and start learning how to earn respect through mutual co-existence and cooperation? The earlier they learn the better for themselves.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
IDPs’ end of nightmare
Mohammad Jamil
On successful military operation in Malakand Division and Swat where terrorists have been routed, people are jubilating as they see end of the nightmare. With peace restored to the valley of Swat, its residents, who had migrated to other areas and camps, started returning to their homes to lead a normal life. Contrary to the views of the skeptics, they are not scared of the militants, as they have confidence in the armed forces that they would destroy the miscreants and thugs who had made their lives miserable. According to a report carried in English daily: “Elders are happy that they will return to their homes and start their businesses afresh, whereas children and youngsters are hoping to see their friends and schools. They are ecstatic about getting a chance to play in the lush-green fields again”. Welcome banners have been installed on roads leading to Swat, Dir and Malakand Agency. The banners with slogans of ‘Long live Pakistan’, ‘Welcome our displaced brethren’ and ‘Say no to militancy’ have been fixed on various corners of the roads.
The return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) was started on Monday as planned by the government. The convoys of the IDPs are streaming in the beautiful valley amid tight security arrangements, backed by military gunship helicopters. The security is aimed at avoiding any untoward incident during the IDPs’ return. The Emergency Response Unit (ERU), a body formed to deal the issue of the IDPs, had said a day before the return of IDPs that about 5,760 families would be repatriated to their homes in the first phase. A spokesman for the ERU told the media men that 720 buses and 52 trucks would carry the displaced families to Landakay, Barikot, Guratai and Kota areas of the troubled Swat Valley. According to the plan, the IDPs would be sent back in four phases. The IDPs living in camps, schools, private houses and other provinces would be sent back in the first, second, third and fourth phases, respectively.
The IDPs of Buner are also going back to their abodes, and arrangements have been made for the repatriation of those in-camp IDPs from Buner who might have stayed back for one reason or another and wished to return voluntarily, the ERU said. One-month foodstuff has been provided to the IDPs prior to their return. The displaced people were seen going back to their homes also on foot on the main Mingora-Peshawar road on Sunday. Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira said on Sunday that repatriation process of the internally displaced persons would start from Monday, which of course started as planned. He confirmed that 125,000 displaced families were already paid Rs 25,000 each through the UBL visa cards. It was indeed a Herculean task to look after more than two million IDPs but with the help of the army. the civil administration has been able to deliver. Of course, there are always some complaints while taking up such a gigantic challenge, and secondly it is not humanly possible to satisfy each and everybody.
Some critics had said that why the government took so long to decide to start operation against terrorists and enemies of Pakistan. And why armed forces did not take the initiative to take on them. According to a website report, Pakistan Army and the ISI have been developing a militia to eliminate the 10,000 strong Anti-Pakistan force of Baitullah Mehsud. It has been training, arming and supporting a Counter-TTP force under the auspices of Qari Zainuddin Mehsud who was loyal to Pakistan and against the Anti-Pakistan Baitullah Mehsud. Because Qari Zainuddin had exposed the evil designs of Baitullah Mehsud openly saying that he had links with Indian RAW and Israel’s Mossad, which had infuriated Baitullah Mehsud and Qari Zainuddin was assassinated.
It has to be mentioned that army is under obligation to obey the elected government, it therefore acted only after the Parliament had endorsed the decision of the government. The top leaders of the country belonging to various political and religious parties had also endorsed the government’s decision to eliminate the menace of terrorism and religious extremism in All Parties Conference. Sot the armed forces got the backing and support from the country’s political parties and their leaders from across the broad spectrum but they were cautioned against collateral damage or alienation of the general public. Armed forces of Pakistan are moving forward cautiously and taking due care to avoid the collateral damage, and they have been able to keep the level of damage very low. Leaders, allies and colleagues of terrorists are utterly confused as they had not expected that the government would opt for military action.
They are now disappointed and frustrated over the success of the military operation, as many of terrorists’ colleagues and ‘comrades in arms’ have started doubting the intentions of Baitullah Mehsud and other leaders. They do not wish to fight Pakistani army and some have expressed their resolve to abandon militancy. Anyhow, terrorists’ leaders stand exposed, and people of Malakand and Swat now better understand the evil intent of Fazlullah and Sufi Muhammad because instead of working on Nizam-i-Adl they started challenging writ of the state in Buner, Dir and other parts of the NWFP. One could not blame the people of Swat for playing in the hands of religious shysters because they used the slogan of Islam to hoodwink the innocent people, and perpetrated atrocities and brutalities on the population.
They destroyed schools, barbers shops and video shops, but now they are shaving their beards and are running for life. But there is need for a fatwa from right-thinking ulema that Baitullah Mehsud and his thugs have nothing to do with Islam, and they have intentionally tarnished its image irretrievably. In Qur’an Sura Almaeda-32 Allah ordains: “Whosoever killeth a human being for other than manslaughter or creating turmoil in the earth, it shall be as if he had killed all mankind, and whosoever saveth the life of one, it shall be as if he had saved the life of all mankind”. But terrorists has shown utter disregard for Qur’anic injuctions, and do not deserve any sympathy.
It would be injustice if one does not pay tributes to the armed forces for the great achievement in that they have almost cleared and recovered the area where militants, terrorists and thugs aided and abetted by foreign intelligence agencies had complete control and who were armed with sophisticated and heavy weapons, rocket launchers and anti-tank guns and equipment.
There is no doubt that Pakistan’s security forces are one of the best in the world, and what they have achieved within a short span of time, the US, NATO and Afghan forces have not been able to achieve during the last eight years is reflective of their professionalism and dedication. Anyhow the fight is not yet over and the terrorists who ran away from the area would try to hide in some other areas, and the government would have to watch their movements so that they do not gang up again to the detriment of the people.
There were warnings that militants have their hideouts in Southern Punjab, and the recent explosion in a house-seminary in Mian Channu where weapons and explosives were stored lends credence to the stories about their training centres and ammunition dumps.
Email: mjamil1938@yahoo.com & mjamil1938@hotmail.com
On successful military operation in Malakand Division and Swat where terrorists have been routed, people are jubilating as they see end of the nightmare. With peace restored to the valley of Swat, its residents, who had migrated to other areas and camps, started returning to their homes to lead a normal life. Contrary to the views of the skeptics, they are not scared of the militants, as they have confidence in the armed forces that they would destroy the miscreants and thugs who had made their lives miserable. According to a report carried in English daily: “Elders are happy that they will return to their homes and start their businesses afresh, whereas children and youngsters are hoping to see their friends and schools. They are ecstatic about getting a chance to play in the lush-green fields again”. Welcome banners have been installed on roads leading to Swat, Dir and Malakand Agency. The banners with slogans of ‘Long live Pakistan’, ‘Welcome our displaced brethren’ and ‘Say no to militancy’ have been fixed on various corners of the roads.
The return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) was started on Monday as planned by the government. The convoys of the IDPs are streaming in the beautiful valley amid tight security arrangements, backed by military gunship helicopters. The security is aimed at avoiding any untoward incident during the IDPs’ return. The Emergency Response Unit (ERU), a body formed to deal the issue of the IDPs, had said a day before the return of IDPs that about 5,760 families would be repatriated to their homes in the first phase. A spokesman for the ERU told the media men that 720 buses and 52 trucks would carry the displaced families to Landakay, Barikot, Guratai and Kota areas of the troubled Swat Valley. According to the plan, the IDPs would be sent back in four phases. The IDPs living in camps, schools, private houses and other provinces would be sent back in the first, second, third and fourth phases, respectively.
The IDPs of Buner are also going back to their abodes, and arrangements have been made for the repatriation of those in-camp IDPs from Buner who might have stayed back for one reason or another and wished to return voluntarily, the ERU said. One-month foodstuff has been provided to the IDPs prior to their return. The displaced people were seen going back to their homes also on foot on the main Mingora-Peshawar road on Sunday. Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira said on Sunday that repatriation process of the internally displaced persons would start from Monday, which of course started as planned. He confirmed that 125,000 displaced families were already paid Rs 25,000 each through the UBL visa cards. It was indeed a Herculean task to look after more than two million IDPs but with the help of the army. the civil administration has been able to deliver. Of course, there are always some complaints while taking up such a gigantic challenge, and secondly it is not humanly possible to satisfy each and everybody.
Some critics had said that why the government took so long to decide to start operation against terrorists and enemies of Pakistan. And why armed forces did not take the initiative to take on them. According to a website report, Pakistan Army and the ISI have been developing a militia to eliminate the 10,000 strong Anti-Pakistan force of Baitullah Mehsud. It has been training, arming and supporting a Counter-TTP force under the auspices of Qari Zainuddin Mehsud who was loyal to Pakistan and against the Anti-Pakistan Baitullah Mehsud. Because Qari Zainuddin had exposed the evil designs of Baitullah Mehsud openly saying that he had links with Indian RAW and Israel’s Mossad, which had infuriated Baitullah Mehsud and Qari Zainuddin was assassinated.
It has to be mentioned that army is under obligation to obey the elected government, it therefore acted only after the Parliament had endorsed the decision of the government. The top leaders of the country belonging to various political and religious parties had also endorsed the government’s decision to eliminate the menace of terrorism and religious extremism in All Parties Conference. Sot the armed forces got the backing and support from the country’s political parties and their leaders from across the broad spectrum but they were cautioned against collateral damage or alienation of the general public. Armed forces of Pakistan are moving forward cautiously and taking due care to avoid the collateral damage, and they have been able to keep the level of damage very low. Leaders, allies and colleagues of terrorists are utterly confused as they had not expected that the government would opt for military action.
They are now disappointed and frustrated over the success of the military operation, as many of terrorists’ colleagues and ‘comrades in arms’ have started doubting the intentions of Baitullah Mehsud and other leaders. They do not wish to fight Pakistani army and some have expressed their resolve to abandon militancy. Anyhow, terrorists’ leaders stand exposed, and people of Malakand and Swat now better understand the evil intent of Fazlullah and Sufi Muhammad because instead of working on Nizam-i-Adl they started challenging writ of the state in Buner, Dir and other parts of the NWFP. One could not blame the people of Swat for playing in the hands of religious shysters because they used the slogan of Islam to hoodwink the innocent people, and perpetrated atrocities and brutalities on the population.
They destroyed schools, barbers shops and video shops, but now they are shaving their beards and are running for life. But there is need for a fatwa from right-thinking ulema that Baitullah Mehsud and his thugs have nothing to do with Islam, and they have intentionally tarnished its image irretrievably. In Qur’an Sura Almaeda-32 Allah ordains: “Whosoever killeth a human being for other than manslaughter or creating turmoil in the earth, it shall be as if he had killed all mankind, and whosoever saveth the life of one, it shall be as if he had saved the life of all mankind”. But terrorists has shown utter disregard for Qur’anic injuctions, and do not deserve any sympathy.
It would be injustice if one does not pay tributes to the armed forces for the great achievement in that they have almost cleared and recovered the area where militants, terrorists and thugs aided and abetted by foreign intelligence agencies had complete control and who were armed with sophisticated and heavy weapons, rocket launchers and anti-tank guns and equipment.
There is no doubt that Pakistan’s security forces are one of the best in the world, and what they have achieved within a short span of time, the US, NATO and Afghan forces have not been able to achieve during the last eight years is reflective of their professionalism and dedication. Anyhow the fight is not yet over and the terrorists who ran away from the area would try to hide in some other areas, and the government would have to watch their movements so that they do not gang up again to the detriment of the people.
There were warnings that militants have their hideouts in Southern Punjab, and the recent explosion in a house-seminary in Mian Channu where weapons and explosives were stored lends credence to the stories about their training centres and ammunition dumps.
Email: mjamil1938@yahoo.com & mjamil1938@hotmail.com
Afpak strategy: Prospects and problems
Afpak strategy: Prospects and problems
Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan
Upon completion of first 100 days in the office as the 44th President of United States of America, Mr. Barack Obama announced a new policy for managing the affairs of war ravaged Afghanistan and militancy-hit Pakistan; indeed the fallout of the Afghan hostilities. The strategy later was popularly known as the “AfPak” policy and had been hailed by leadership of Afghanistan and Pakistan instantaneously, soon after its announcement. Mainly centred around the shared dealing of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the focal goal to dislocate, dismantle, and overpower the terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and Taliban and to prevent their comeback in a future scenario by adopting a regional approach. The core of the policy as articulated by President Obama was that the soil of Afghanistan and Pakistan should not be used as a base to launch attacks against the US homeland and any developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan should not affect each other’s stability and efforts of purging away the al-Qaeda and Taliban. US special envoy, Mr. Richard Holbrooke has been assigned the exceptional responsibilities both in Pakistan and Afghanistan in connection with the stated policy for the subsequent resolution of the Afghan crises. By making a unified command under Holbrooke, President Obama might have thought to redo or correct whatever US could not do in the last eight years. Moreover, the US Afpak policy clearly indicated its concerns about the geopolitics of the region, the location of the Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is also reflective of its long-term interests in the region. Analysts, those viewing it as the “US Exit Strategy”, as also hinted by President Obama, while announcing the policy, might not have considered the indicators like reinforcement of existing force level with another 21,000 troops, which substantiate its long-term designs in the region. The policy further explains that within the ambit of the UN; United States would form a “new contact group for Afghanistan and Pakistan”, comprising all those having their stakes in the regional security. Apart from NATO and other US allies; Central Asian states, the Gulf nations and Iran, Russia, India, and China would be forming part of the regional approach, crafted for the resolution of the appalling situation. At the outset, it sounds, as if the policy is a major shift in the American strategy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular and South Asia in general. But actually the policy is a mix of optimism and suspicions. While optimism arises out of US roadmap for the construction and development of employment opportunity zones along the Pak-Afghan border, the suspicions are the product of past policies. The optimism emphasizes on institutional buildup, their subsequent strengthening and finally enhancement of their capacities in both countries. For this purpose Kerry-Lugar bipartisan financial assistance package for Pakistan has already been approved by US. Afghanistan is otherwise receiving billions of US dollars in terms of financial assistance ever since 2001. Another optimistic feature of the policy is that through the involvement of regional countries US is promoting a multilateral approach to resolve the conflict in Afghanistan. Moreover making Iran, an important stakeholder in Afghanistan as part of the approach would place some added responsibilities on latter’s internal stability. The suspicions and apprehensions included; would US be really interested in promoting the regional approach by giving away the sole authority, it enjoys as the only super power; a shift from unilateralism to multilateralism or else there are out of sight intentions attached to the AfPak Policy. Trepidation also surrounds that regional approach may further complicate the issue, as all regional players; the stake holders have their personal agendas which they would not like to give up for the sake of US ease and desires. More so, incorporation of India in the regional approach; being a geographically non-contiguous country to Afghanistan and having historical animosity with its western neighbour would seriously bother Pakistan; the most affected country during the entire Afghan turbulence, since 1979. Indeed through guaranteed US cooperation, India already has a deep involvement in the Afghan affairs in the garb of reconstruction and development of infrastructure. Pakistan has serious reservations and apprehensions of Indian role in the destabilization of its Balochistan province and FATA region. There are evidences with Pakistan that India along with some other regional and extra regional countries is providing training, weapons and equipment and unlimited finances to these terrorists in their anti-Pakistan terrorist activities. All aim to commit Pak Army along the Western borders and attrite it to the maximum so that it should not pose a threat or maintain a military balance on the eastern borders. The noteworthy question arise here that if regional approach deems so significant, then within the region Kashmir is even a much more older and grim issue; the fundamental cause of tension in South Asia, warranting immediate resolution as described by President Obama himself upon his victory on November 4, 2008. Why it has deliberately been excluded after correct identification, perhaps to please India; the new US strategic partner in the region. But history also reads aloud that putting Kashmir at the backburner would not bring a lasting peace in South Asia, even if the Afghan catastrophe was resolved through ambitious regional approach. US could have espoused of an unbiased policy to get the region rid of the “issues”, really hassling the stability of South Asia. Apart from Pakistan, China too has its serious reservations about rapidly increasing Indo-US ties and Indian involvement in Afghanistan and Central Asia in its neighbourhood. While analyzing the regional approach through yet another angle, which provides flexibility for the time being, keep aside other enduring regional issues for the resolution of Afghan conflict. Even then there exists no commonalities of interest among the regional countries and between the regional and extra-regional players; which is considered to be a pre-requisite for the success of any such modus operandi. Two main regional powers namely; China and Russia may have unanimity in their policies for the exit of US from the region, as demonstrated during all SCO Summits, including the recently concluded one in Russia, but have varying interest in Afghanistan, Pakistan and neighbouring Central Asia. The case of India and Pakistan over Afghan affairs and many other regional issues are even staid. Even US does not share its interests with any other country including its NATO allies, who reluctantly support its military operations in Afghanistan. There is no doubt that under the uncertain environment prevalent because of extremism and terrorism in Pakistani and Afghan societies, there is a need to tackle the menace jointly, but the aspect of sovereignty and integrity of the states are to be maintained. Afghanistan, a war-torn country under foreign occupation cannot be equated with a sovereign nuclear power of the world. Pakistan still feed 2.5 million Afghan refugees in its own territory. Moreover except religion, Afghanistan and Pakistan have different backgrounds, culture and values. Therefore, the over ambitious and ambiguous AfPak policy needs to be reviewed and reconciled for a logical forward-thinking while taking historical context of both countries in view. The prevalent instability in Pakistan is because of Afghan conflict and major power’s deep involvement in the affairs of the region. Even if today international community arranges closure of Pak-Afghan border and start discouraging the conspiracies in Pakistan by other countries, Pakistan would become internally most stable and economically well off state without any foreign assistance like 1.5 billion annual aid in the world arena in a matter of few months.
Email: drmk_edu@yahoo.com
Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan
Upon completion of first 100 days in the office as the 44th President of United States of America, Mr. Barack Obama announced a new policy for managing the affairs of war ravaged Afghanistan and militancy-hit Pakistan; indeed the fallout of the Afghan hostilities. The strategy later was popularly known as the “AfPak” policy and had been hailed by leadership of Afghanistan and Pakistan instantaneously, soon after its announcement. Mainly centred around the shared dealing of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the focal goal to dislocate, dismantle, and overpower the terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and Taliban and to prevent their comeback in a future scenario by adopting a regional approach. The core of the policy as articulated by President Obama was that the soil of Afghanistan and Pakistan should not be used as a base to launch attacks against the US homeland and any developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan should not affect each other’s stability and efforts of purging away the al-Qaeda and Taliban. US special envoy, Mr. Richard Holbrooke has been assigned the exceptional responsibilities both in Pakistan and Afghanistan in connection with the stated policy for the subsequent resolution of the Afghan crises. By making a unified command under Holbrooke, President Obama might have thought to redo or correct whatever US could not do in the last eight years. Moreover, the US Afpak policy clearly indicated its concerns about the geopolitics of the region, the location of the Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is also reflective of its long-term interests in the region. Analysts, those viewing it as the “US Exit Strategy”, as also hinted by President Obama, while announcing the policy, might not have considered the indicators like reinforcement of existing force level with another 21,000 troops, which substantiate its long-term designs in the region. The policy further explains that within the ambit of the UN; United States would form a “new contact group for Afghanistan and Pakistan”, comprising all those having their stakes in the regional security. Apart from NATO and other US allies; Central Asian states, the Gulf nations and Iran, Russia, India, and China would be forming part of the regional approach, crafted for the resolution of the appalling situation. At the outset, it sounds, as if the policy is a major shift in the American strategy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular and South Asia in general. But actually the policy is a mix of optimism and suspicions. While optimism arises out of US roadmap for the construction and development of employment opportunity zones along the Pak-Afghan border, the suspicions are the product of past policies. The optimism emphasizes on institutional buildup, their subsequent strengthening and finally enhancement of their capacities in both countries. For this purpose Kerry-Lugar bipartisan financial assistance package for Pakistan has already been approved by US. Afghanistan is otherwise receiving billions of US dollars in terms of financial assistance ever since 2001. Another optimistic feature of the policy is that through the involvement of regional countries US is promoting a multilateral approach to resolve the conflict in Afghanistan. Moreover making Iran, an important stakeholder in Afghanistan as part of the approach would place some added responsibilities on latter’s internal stability. The suspicions and apprehensions included; would US be really interested in promoting the regional approach by giving away the sole authority, it enjoys as the only super power; a shift from unilateralism to multilateralism or else there are out of sight intentions attached to the AfPak Policy. Trepidation also surrounds that regional approach may further complicate the issue, as all regional players; the stake holders have their personal agendas which they would not like to give up for the sake of US ease and desires. More so, incorporation of India in the regional approach; being a geographically non-contiguous country to Afghanistan and having historical animosity with its western neighbour would seriously bother Pakistan; the most affected country during the entire Afghan turbulence, since 1979. Indeed through guaranteed US cooperation, India already has a deep involvement in the Afghan affairs in the garb of reconstruction and development of infrastructure. Pakistan has serious reservations and apprehensions of Indian role in the destabilization of its Balochistan province and FATA region. There are evidences with Pakistan that India along with some other regional and extra regional countries is providing training, weapons and equipment and unlimited finances to these terrorists in their anti-Pakistan terrorist activities. All aim to commit Pak Army along the Western borders and attrite it to the maximum so that it should not pose a threat or maintain a military balance on the eastern borders. The noteworthy question arise here that if regional approach deems so significant, then within the region Kashmir is even a much more older and grim issue; the fundamental cause of tension in South Asia, warranting immediate resolution as described by President Obama himself upon his victory on November 4, 2008. Why it has deliberately been excluded after correct identification, perhaps to please India; the new US strategic partner in the region. But history also reads aloud that putting Kashmir at the backburner would not bring a lasting peace in South Asia, even if the Afghan catastrophe was resolved through ambitious regional approach. US could have espoused of an unbiased policy to get the region rid of the “issues”, really hassling the stability of South Asia. Apart from Pakistan, China too has its serious reservations about rapidly increasing Indo-US ties and Indian involvement in Afghanistan and Central Asia in its neighbourhood. While analyzing the regional approach through yet another angle, which provides flexibility for the time being, keep aside other enduring regional issues for the resolution of Afghan conflict. Even then there exists no commonalities of interest among the regional countries and between the regional and extra-regional players; which is considered to be a pre-requisite for the success of any such modus operandi. Two main regional powers namely; China and Russia may have unanimity in their policies for the exit of US from the region, as demonstrated during all SCO Summits, including the recently concluded one in Russia, but have varying interest in Afghanistan, Pakistan and neighbouring Central Asia. The case of India and Pakistan over Afghan affairs and many other regional issues are even staid. Even US does not share its interests with any other country including its NATO allies, who reluctantly support its military operations in Afghanistan. There is no doubt that under the uncertain environment prevalent because of extremism and terrorism in Pakistani and Afghan societies, there is a need to tackle the menace jointly, but the aspect of sovereignty and integrity of the states are to be maintained. Afghanistan, a war-torn country under foreign occupation cannot be equated with a sovereign nuclear power of the world. Pakistan still feed 2.5 million Afghan refugees in its own territory. Moreover except religion, Afghanistan and Pakistan have different backgrounds, culture and values. Therefore, the over ambitious and ambiguous AfPak policy needs to be reviewed and reconciled for a logical forward-thinking while taking historical context of both countries in view. The prevalent instability in Pakistan is because of Afghan conflict and major power’s deep involvement in the affairs of the region. Even if today international community arranges closure of Pak-Afghan border and start discouraging the conspiracies in Pakistan by other countries, Pakistan would become internally most stable and economically well off state without any foreign assistance like 1.5 billion annual aid in the world arena in a matter of few months.
Email: drmk_edu@yahoo.com
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