Nexus of Conspiracies in Balochistan

Nexus of Conspiracies in Balochistan
Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan

Balochistan, the largest province of Pakistan, has immense geo-strategic significance in the emerging international political and economic order. Unfortunately, the prevalent sub nationalistic tendencies and militancy in the province have remained major concern for successive federal governments, who in turn had to resort to operations by security forces for curbing the fissiparous tendencies. For the fourth time in its history, Pakistan is facing an insurgency like situation in the Province. It is perceived that if the situation is not handled aptly, it may have serious repercussions for the country in general and the province in particular. Indeed, Pakistan’s security dynamics essentially relate to changing global environment and internal problems being faced by the country especially after it became a nuclear power in 1998 and in the post-9/11 scenario. Involvement of external forces in exploiting the issue is no more a secret. Major actors involved in the destabilization of the province include most of the regional countries and the former super powers of the cold war. Share and concerns of all these actors in the destabilization process are summarized below. Until 1990s, most of the sub-nationalistic groups of Balochistan were supported by former Soviet Union. Even the militant organisation; Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is basically a brainchild of KGB. It was built around the core of Baloch Students Organisation (BSO). Indeed there have been reasons to all this. During the entire period of cold war Pakistan was part of the Capitalist bloc under the US, which annoyed the next door neighbour; the former Soviet Union. The Communist country therefore in turn searched for and once found cultured its likeminded people in Balochistan, who never wanted the province to be part of Pakistan from the very inception of the country. India being part of Communist camp was also able to fuel the sentiments of these selfish sardars (feudals) against Pakistan. In this way India and Soviet Union had harmony of opinion against Pakistan right from its inception. After the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan felt threatened and sided with the US and rest of the world and Islamic bloc against Russia. Moreover during this campaign the Soviet Union was surprised by the ability and resourcefulness of Pakistan to generate a quick and effective resistance movement in Afghanistan. Therefore to punish Pakistan and to answer back in the same currency, Kremlin decided to create instability in Pakistan through its intelligence setup. It organised and funded most of the sabotage activities in Pakistan. It attracted a number of Baloch Sardars in the guise of higher education and polluted their minds against Pakistan in the process. Many tribal elders of the province also took refuge in Russia during counter insurgency operations. Upon its disintegration in 1991, Russian Federation lowered its guard and covertly allowed India to take on the anti-Pakistan activities in early 1990s. The infamous Indian intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing; RAW, has a history of involvement in the affairs of Pakistan. Indeed, the creation of this very spying network was aimed at destabilization of all the regional countries, especially Pakistan. In reality its first victim was East Pakistan; now Bangladesh, where initially through Mukti Bhanis and later through aggressive military actions, India disintegrated Pakistan in December 1971. In order to destabilise Pakistan, India has never missed a chance in using the soil of all the regional countries having geographical linkages with Pakistan under various ploys. One such location is Zahidan; the capital of the Irani province “Sistan-o-Balochistan”, which is bordering Pakistan. As an estimate, over two million Balochis live on the Iranian side of Balochistan. The opening of her consulate in Zahidan, in the vicinity of Balochistan was directly aimed at its involvement in the domestic affairs of the province through promotion of the sub-nationalistic sentiments. In the wording of Afshin Afzal, “Indian Consulate General in Zahidan and Indian Embassy in Tehran have become Indian intelligence agency RAW’s breeding ground for agents. Diplomats of Indian Embassy in Tehran and Consulate General in Zahidan were photographed holding confidential meetings with leaders of Mujahideen-e-Khalq and Jandolla group in Dubai and Zarang, Afghanistan”. It is not all about; India is manning five consulates and dozens of covert offices in different cities of Iran, all being used for the spying missions, mainly against Pakistan. As a part of its global agenda, India is securing its Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) as most of her trade with the world is through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. The strategically located Gwadar port affords an opportunity to Pakistan’s Navy to effectively interfere with her SLOC in any future conflict. Moreover the unanimous opposition of the Gwadar port by India, Iran and the local Baloch sardars creates much concern for Pakistan and has repeatedly strengthened the apprehensions that India is supporting the ongoing Baloch insurgency in its entirety. The inclination of Baloch leaders towards India has enhanced the chances of ill-designed activities. Sub-nationalists are being supported by them who are running the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan while sitting either in Afghanistan or India. Moreover, all training to the Afghan intelligence agencies is also being imparted by RAW, which also is supporting financially and militarily armed outfits like Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Revolutionary Army (BRA). The bases of these outfits are set up in Kandahar and Nimroz, Afghanistan where their men are being trained. Besides India, there always have been strained relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan in their entire history. Afghanistan opposed the membership of Pakistan to the UN. This act was followed by convening of ‘Loya Jirga’ on 26th July 1949, in Kabul, which declared Durand Line agreement null and void. The subsequent Afghan governments continue beating the drums of need for re-demarcation of the boundaries. Owing to this interest, Afghan government supported the anti-Pakistan insurgents in Balochistan during the insurgencies of 1958 and 1973. They were given refuge in Afghanistan besides supporting their activities. Apart from the historical connections, the current government in Kabul is actively supporting the sub-nationalists in Balochistan and harbouring and abetting the Indians to fuel the insurgency in the province. Presence of Brahamdagh Bugti and Zamaran Marri and a huge number of anti-Pakistan training camps inside Afghan territory is an open secret. All is being done with the consent of present Afghan government and its collaboration with the Indians. Moreover, it can be conveniently added that Afghanistan is providing safe bases/platform to the RAW elements that are supporting the Baloch separatist elements by all means. Afghanistan also assented India to open at least six consulates along the Pak-Afghan border. These consulates are being used for launching and regulating the terrorist activities inside Pakistan, especially in FATA, and in parts of Balochistan. With regards to Iran, there have been unfriendly relationships between Iran and the Sardars of Balochistan. Fearful of an expansion of the problem to its own part of Baloch populated areas; the “Sistan-o-Balochistan”, Iran did not support the Pakistani Baloch’s fissiparous tendencies until the end of cold war or the disintegration of former Soviet Union. In the post-Afghan war era (1991 onwards), Iran felt marginalized in the regional politics due to Pakistan’s tilt towards Taliban and in the subsequent years, considered the development of Gwadar port in the Balochistan as a threat to its economic interests as well. Upon commencement of initial designing and construction work of the Gwadar port by Chinese companies, as contracted by Government of Pakistan, Iran instantaneously planned to develop its own port at Chahbahar with the help of India. It has also contracted India to construct 213 km long road to connect this Iranian port with Afghanistan and then on to Central Asia. India indeed is eyeing this Iranian port as its own shortest route to Central Asian markets through warm water and may be able to act as a counter balance to Chinese influence in Gwadar. Over the years, Iran’s differences with Pakistan in securing its interests in Afghanistan coupled with the economic interests resulted into an enhanced gulf between the two traditionally very close neighbours. The Gwadar project further enhanced the Pak-China relationship. China; an emerging global power, has provided a large sum of technical and financial assistance for the project. For China, the Gwadar port will not only allow it to diversify its crude oil import routes and extend its presence in the Indian Ocean, but it would also allow the Chinese to more easily monitor US naval activity in the region. China is obviously concerned with the impact of violence on their sizeable investment in Gwadar. China’s interest in the Gwadar project stems from the port’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. A base at Gwadar enables China to secure the flow of its oil, 60% of its energy supplies come from the Middle East, through the strait. With all these developments and its presence in Afghanistan, it is highly unlikely that US is unaware of anti-Pakistan activities by above mentioned actors. Its baffling silence over all these is questionable. However US and India are collaborating deeply in Afghanistan and has strategic alliance in the regional politics. It is understood that US would not like China to engage into more development projects in Balochistan. Already by developing the Gwadar port and roads in Balochistan, China is ultimately helping itself by creating a convenient conduit for commerce that would connect China concurrently with Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East, thus having its influence all around. Through its silence and collaboration with India, it is perceived that US desires to keep its options open to play a future role in the regional politics. The possibility of supporting the secessionist Baloch movement in Iran by US cannot be ruled out which would have repercussions for Pakistan as well. Moreover, Washington favours the creation of a “Greater Balochistan” which would integrate the Baloch areas of Pakistan with those of Iran and possibly the Southern tip of Afghanistan, thereby leading to a process of political fracturing in both Iran and Pakistan. Recent unrest in Iran may prove a prelude to the future strategy of United States. Some of the analysts foresee the current US policy in the region as to counter the growing involvement of China in Balochistan’s development projects. Britain and other European countries have provided political exile to a number of the sub-nationalists of Balochistan. As a reference; in November 1979, a number of Marri and Mengals went into voluntary political exile in Europe and some of them are still there. Javed Mengal son of Ataullah Mengal and Hyrbyair Marri son of Khair Bux Marri are supporting the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan while sitting in Britain and other European countries. In spite of Pakistan’s intimate relationship with all Gulf States, Gwadar port is being viewed as rival to Dubai. Some of the GCC states have the feeling that Gwadar would dominate and neutralize the significance of all surrounding ports of the Gulf countries therefore have shown their concerns. Even a number of Baloch insurgents are also operating from the GCC States, which really bothers Pakistan. In spite of having sufficient proofs, over the years, Pakistan has been extra gracious in making accusations regarding deep rooted involvement of regional and global actors, especially India, in the destabilisation of Balochistan. On its part, India perhaps took this mystifying silence as the weakness of Pakistan or else thought, the former is unaware or unable to notice its conspiracies in the province and throughout in Pakistan. As highlighted by Mr. Christine Fair of the RAND Corporation in the US magazine, “Foreign Affairs” of March - 2009, during his visit of the consulate in his private meeting with the Indian officials of the Zahidan Consulate, he learnt that Indians are not issuing the visas, but “are pumping money into Balochistan.” The security environment in Balochistan has necessitated a correct perception of threat analysis which would lead us to formulate correct policies for the future of the Province in particular and Pakistan in general. At the same time world community, especially United States, must avoid playing great games in the region by making use of Pakistani borders, willingly or otherwise. We had suffered enough and let’s there be an end to the miseries for the people of Pakistan. International community must also fulfill its obligations to keep a balance in the region by discouraging anti-Pakistan activities by all those involved in the destabilisation of Balochistan, in particular India.

Email: drmk_edu@yahoo.com